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Astral Codex Ten’s Open Thread 456 is a weekly community post combining open discussion with updates on local meetups, a survey about AI safety grantmaking and several projects. The post also points readers to a real-money AI prediction market and a proposed system for community notes across websites.
Astral Codex Ten has published Open Thread 456, its weekly forum for reader discussion, alongside notices about local meetups, a survey on AI safety grantmaking and new community projects. The post is a collection of announcements rather than a single reported event, and its items include a Boston election guide, an early notice for a San Francisco meetup, and a real-money prediction market focused on AI.
The thread invites readers to post on any subject and points them to the blog’s unofficial subreddit, Discord and bulletin board, as well as in-person meetups. It lists meetup changes in Rockville, Northampton, Eindhoven, Great Barrington, Cairo, Portland and Sofia, directing readers to the post for details. The dates attached to several notices are not accompanied by a year in the supplied material.
The Boston ACX meetup group has completed a Greater Boston general-election voting guide, according to the post. The author says further guides may follow and that work on a Bay Area guide is still being considered. The post says San Francisco mail-in ballot registration was due by the end of that Monday and identifies Scott Wiener for Congress as the group’s main San Francisco endorsement; it does not give a year or further details about the guide.
The post also asks people familiar with AI and grantmaking to complete a survey assigning utility weights to about 80 AI safety accomplishments. A second version asks respondents to predict how the author would answer the first survey, an approach the author says could help distinguish differences in worldview from random variation in how people assign weights. Separate announcements describe MNX, a real-money AI prediction market, and Common Notes, a project intended to extend community notes beyond social media.
How the Thread Connects Its Community
The post brings together several ways readers can participate in the ACX community: discussion, local gatherings, election information and research input. For readers in the named cities, the meetup notices may provide practical updates, while the Boston guide and possible future guides offer a community-produced source of election information. The post does not provide the guide’s recommendations or explain its methodology in the supplied material, so readers would need to consult the linked guide before relying on it.
The survey is relevant to people interested in how AI safety funding might be evaluated. Assigning weights to different accomplishments can reveal what participants value, while the alternate survey is designed to help separate disagreement about priorities from inconsistent responses. The post describes this as work toward modeling and possibly automating parts of grantmaking; it does not say that an automated grantmaking system is complete or being used to make funding decisions.
MNX and Common Notes are presented as projects by people connected to the blog’s community. One offers a market for trading on AI-related outcomes, while the other aims to make community annotations available across websites. Both could draw participation beyond ACX readers, but the thread offers only brief descriptions, not independent evidence about their reach, operation or results.
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A Weekly Forum With Project Updates
Open Thread 456 follows the blog’s recurring format: a general invitation to readers to talk about anything, with a short list of community notices attached. The source says some ACX content is free and some is subscriber-only, and lists several channels where readers can interact. The announcements therefore sit within a larger network of online discussion and local gatherings rather than representing one coordinated institutional program.
The AI grantmaking survey is described as a continuation of the author’s earlier modeling efforts, which the post links to but does not detail in the supplied text. Its questions concern how respondents value a range of AI safety accomplishments. The companion version asks participants to estimate the author’s own answers, with the stated aim of helping identify whether differences reflect underlying views or random noise in the weighting process.
The post identifies Stephen Grugett, described as a grantee and Manifold Markets co-founder, as the person announcing MNX. It says the market allows users to sell futures representing AI company stocks, wager directly on company revenues and trade on other targets, including Epoch Capabilities Index outcomes. The thread also mentions Goodheart Labs’ Common Notes, describing a mix of AI-written notes, user submissions and voting, with a browser extension intended to display notes across websites.
“This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever.”
— Astral Codex Ten post
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Dates, Guides and Project Details
The supplied post does not specify the year for its references to Monday’s San Francisco registration deadline or the upcoming Saturday meetup at Mox, 1680 Mission St. It says the meetup is scheduled for 1 p.m. on 10/24, but the date’s year and current status cannot be established from the provided material. Readers should check the original post or relevant local sources for current timing.
Details of the Greater Boston voting guide, the changes to the listed meetups and any possible Bay Area guide are not included in the source text. The author says more guides may be published, but does not confirm that one for the Bay Area will be produced.
The thread does not provide survey results, the number of respondents, or a timeline for any grantmaking model. It also does not detail MNX’s terms, regulatory status or market activity, nor provide evidence about Common Notes’ performance or coverage. The post’s comparison of predictions about Anthropic’s API revenue is described as a market price observation; it does not establish the company’s actual revenue or valuation.
AI safety grantmaking survey tools
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Reader Surveys and Local Follow-Up
The immediate next steps described in the thread are for interested readers to complete the AI grantmaking survey and, if they have time, its alternate version. The author says the responses will help with data collection, but does not give a publication date for findings or describe how the data will be used beyond separating worldview differences from response noise.
Readers seeking local information can check the post for details on meetup changes and the Boston voting guide. The author says more election guides may appear in the coming week and that a Bay Area version remains under consideration. The thread also gives an early heads-up for the Bay Area gathering at Mox, while the date and deadline references should be checked against current local information.
MNX and Common Notes are presented as projects readers can explore through links in the original post. No launch milestones, future product changes or measured outcomes are specified, so their development and adoption remain open questions.
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Key Questions
What is Open Thread 456?
It is a weekly open discussion post from Astral Codex Ten, inviting readers to discuss any topic and sharing community announcements.
What is the AI grantmaking survey about?
It asks people familiar with AI and grantmaking to assign utility weights to about 80 AI safety accomplishments. An alternate version asks respondents to predict how the author would answer the first survey.
What is MNX?
According to the post, MNX is a real-money prediction market focused on AI, with markets tied to AI company stocks, company revenues and other targets.
What is Common Notes?
The post describes Common Notes as a project intended to bring community annotations to websites beyond social media, using a mix of AI-generated notes, user contributions and voting, with a browser extension.
Are the meetup and ballot deadlines current?
The supplied text gives dates but not a year. Its references to a Monday registration deadline and a Saturday meetup should be checked against the original post and current local sources before readers act on them.
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