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Hurricanes Polo and Nolo brought destructive winds, surge, and flooding to Mexico and Hawaii in late September 2026 during an unusually active Pacific season. Polo made two landfalls in Mexico while Nolo dropped more than 12 inches of rain on parts of Maui and the Island of Hawaii. Named storm counts and accumulated cyclone energy are running well above the 1991-2020 average, driven in part by El Niño conditions.
Hurricanes Polo and Nolo delivered destructive winds, storm surge, and torrential rain to Mexico and Hawaii in late September 2026, according to a NASA Earth Observatory report published September 30, as the northeastern and central Pacific basin continued an unusually busy storm season. Polo made two landfalls in Mexico — first in Baja California Sur late on September 28 and again near Guaymas around midday September 29 — while Nolo, though it stayed offshore, dropped more than 12 inches (30 centimeters) of rain on parts of Maui and the Island of Hawaiʻi.
The scale of the season is unusual. By September 28, 2026, the northeastern and central Pacific had recorded 20 named storms, of which nine reached hurricane strength, according to NASA. The 1991-2020 average by that date is 13.5 named storms and 7.4 hurricanes. Data from Colorado State University cited by NASA showed that accumulated cyclone energy in the Northeast Pacific was more than twice the norm as of September 28.
Polo underwent what NASA described as extreme rapid intensification over unusually warm ocean water, reaching Category 5 status on September 22. The storm weakened before reaching the coast and likely made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). After crossing the Baja peninsula and the Gulf of California, it made a second landfall near Guaymas, Sonora, as a further weakened system. The NHC warned of dangerous winds, storm surge, and heavy rains capable of triggering flooding and mudslides in Baja California Sur and Sonora.
Nolo was the third hurricane of the season to pass close to Hawaii. It flooded roads, toppled trees, and triggered landslides, according to news reports, though the Island of Hawaiʻi avoided the more severe effects that Hurricane Lala brought in mid-August. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rachel tracked parallel to the southwest Mexican coast, where the NHC forecast strong winds and dangerous surf and rip currents, and Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys added to treacherous conditions in the southwestern United States.
Flood Threat Spreads Into the US Southwest
The combined impacts were expected to reach far beyond the immediate landfall zones. Forecasters said Polo, its remnants, and moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys were likely to push over the southwestern U.S. and southern Plains over several days, fueling additional heavy rain and flood risk in regions far from the coast, as The Washington Post reported.
The season’s intensity also matters for what it signals about basin conditions. Scientists expect increased tropical cyclone activity in this basin during an El Niño, which has been underway since June 2026. According to NASA, warm water in the equatorial Pacific and low wind shear — both typical El Niño patterns — encourage tropical storms to develop and strengthen. For coastal and inland communities alike, the pattern points to continued elevated risk as the season progresses.
In Hawaii, the response is already underway: the NASA Disasters Program, in coordination with FEMA, is supporting the State of Hawaii’s response to Hurricane Nolo and posting maps and data products on an open-access mapping portal.
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An El Niño-Fueled Season Above Average
The September 30 report is part of a series tracking an active 2026 season. NASA’s Earth Observatory had previously documented “explosive intensification” for Hurricane Polo on September 25 and a trio of tropical cyclones in the Pacific on September 4. Hawaii was also struck by Hurricane Lala in mid-August, which inflicted more severe effects on the Island of Hawaiʻi than Nolo did.
A satellite image captured on September 27 by NASA’s EPIC instrument aboard the DSCOVR satellite showed the basin filled with simultaneous storms: Nolo near Hawaii, Polo off Baja California, Rachel to Polo’s east, and Odalys to its north. The comparison baseline for the season — 13.5 named storms and 7.4 hurricanes by late September in the 1991-2020 average — comes from NOAA’s standard climate normals used by forecasters.
Damage Assessments and Storm Tracks Pending
Several elements remain unclear. The full extent of damage in Baja California Sur and Sonora from Polo’s two landfalls had not been reported as of September 29. The precise rainfall and flooding totals from Polo’s remnants across the U.S. Southwest and southern Plains depended on forecasts still in progress, and the NHC noted Polo’s landfall intensity was “likely” Category 2 — an estimate rather than a confirmed measurement.
The future track and strengthening of Tropical Storm Rachel along the Mexican coast was also still developing, and it was not yet clear whether any additional systems forming in the basin would threaten land. NASA said its Disasters Program would post new maps and data products “as new information becomes available.”
Remnant Rains and the Season’s Remaining Weeks
Forecasters expected Polo’s remnants, combined with moisture from Odalys, to continue moving over the southwestern U.S. and southern Plains over several days, with associated heavy rain and flood risk — a threat The Washington Post described as serious for the Southwest and central U.S. Residents in those regions were advised to monitor NHC and local weather service forecasts.
The NASA Disasters Program, working with FEMA, will continue updating its open-access mapping portal with data products supporting Hawaii’s response to Nolo. With the El Niño pattern in place since June and accumulated cyclone energy already more than double the norm, the basin is likely to remain active through the remaining weeks of the official season, meaning additional named storms remain possible.
Key Questions
Where did Hurricane Polo make landfall?
Polo made its first landfall in Baja California Sur around 11 p.m. local time on September 28, likely as a Category 2 storm, then crossed the peninsula and Gulf of California and made a second landfall near Guaymas, Sonora, around midday on September 29 as a weaker system.
Did Hurricane Nolo hit Hawaii directly?
No. According to NASA, Nolo did not make landfall, but it passed close enough to drop more than 12 inches (30 cm) of rain on parts of Maui and the Island of Hawaiʻi, flooding roads, toppling trees, and triggering landslides.
Why is the 2026 Pacific storm season so active?
Scientists link the elevated activity to El Niño, underway since June 2026. Warm equatorial Pacific water and low wind shear, both typical El Niño patterns, encourage storms to develop and strengthen. As of September 28, accumulated cyclone energy in the Northeast Pacific was more than twice the norm, per Colorado State University data.
How does this season compare with the average?
By September 28, 2026, the region had 20 named storms and 9 hurricanes, versus the 1991-2020 average of 13.5 named storms and 7.4 hurricanes by that date.
Could Polo’s remnants affect the United States?
Yes. Forecasters said Polo and its remnants, combined with moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys, were likely to push over the southwestern U.S. and southern Plains, bringing heavy rain and flood risk over several days.
Source: primary
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